Thomas D Elias published an editorial in the North County Times on Wednesday September 1st 2010 that pointed out that the "pollsters" are having a very tough time determining public opinion on California Proposition 19, the Marijuana legalization initiative.
Apparently the Field Poll last month found that 48 percent of likely voters are opposed to legalization, while only 44 percent are in favor. But automated polls taken at the same time (robotically) shows that the measure is leading by as much as 15%. It is possible that people when asked on the phone don't want to admit that they are in favor of legalization. So it is going to be very difficult to predict what is going to happen in November on this issue.
Mr. Elias also mentioned several other interesting statistics:
1. In 1972 there was another proposition like this one, but it lost with a 2 to 1 margin.
2. Some believe that by legalizing the $12 Billion pot industry and taxing it, the state could raise $1.4 Billion. However nobody knows for sure.
3. The $12 Billion estimate is based upon the current street value of Pot (he says $300/oz), which will probably fall if the market is legal. So the tax collection, if a percentage of the revenue, will also be less. Unless the demand for the product increases due to the legalization. Both of these factors are very tough, even for a skilled economist to figure out.
4. He asks if Republicans would support a tax on Pot when they have pledged "no new taxes?"
5 Women oppose the proposition with a 9 percent margin, while men are even.
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